After two white-ball World Cups in a span of seven months, the focus has shifted to the ICC World Test Championship with all possible contenders gearing up to collect the required points needed to qualify for the final. Currently, India and Australia are the frontrunners in the race and the winner of the gruelling five-match Test series for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy between the two cricketing giants, scheduled Down Under, later this year, could be well poised to earn a place in the one-off final at Lord’s next year.

ICC Hall of Famer Ricky Ponting has made an early prediction on who holds the upper hand in the forthcoming series between Australia and India and discussed the challenges that each side would seek to overcome in coming months.

The five-match series, commencing in November, looms as an important one for both teams in the run-up to next year’s ICC World Test Championship final.

While India have won the last two Test series in Australia and held the Border-Gavaskar Trophy since they claimed a 4-1 series result on home soil in March 2017, Ponting thinks the hosts might have the edge this time around.

“It’s going to be a competitive series and as I said I think Australia’s got a bit of a point to prove against India in Australia on the back of what’s happened the last the last two series here,” Ponting noted in the ICC Review.

“We are back to five Tests as well, which is the other really important thing about this series. It’s only been four Tests the last couple of times. Five tests, I think everyone’s really excited by that and I don’t know if there’d be too many drawn games.”

“I’m obviously going to tip Australia to win and I’m never going to tip against Australia. There will be a draw somewhere and there will be some bad weather somewhere, so I’m going to say 3-1 to Australia,” the former skipper predicted.

Steve Smith as opener?

Ponting is unsure whether veteran batter Steve Smith will continue in his new role as opener although he isn’t expecting too many surprises with Australia’s team for the series.

Smith moved up the order following the retirement of David Warner to allow star all-rounder Cameron Green to slot in at his preferred No.4 position and Ponting thinks this will likely continue.

“I think Australia will pretty much pick itself. Probably the only one question there might be with Australia again, is if (Steve) Smith’s the right man to be opening the batting. That would be the only query that I can see there. But that was all about obviously bringing Cameron Green back into the side,” he said.

“So I’ll rephrase it, not whether Smith’s the right man to open the batting but whether he thinks it’s the right spot for him. Because I think if he doesn’t think it’s the right spot then they’ll make a change and get someone else back up there,” he added.

India’s pace bowling riches

Ponting was all praise for the India’s quality pace bowling unit led by the ever-dependable Jasprit Bumrah, and fiery quick Mohammed Siraj. Mohammed Shami, who is currently recuperating from a surgery, is expected to return for the Bangladesh series in September, and in that case could be a certainty in the squad that will tour Down Under.

However, the Australia great is hugely impressed with left-armer Khaleel Ahmed, who claimed 17 wickets during the 2024 Indian Premier League for the Delhi Capitals. While Khaleel is yet to make his Test debut, Ponting thinks the 26-year-old could be a valuable addition to the touring party given the variety he offers to the bowling unit.

“Someone like Khaleel Ahmed I think could find himself on the Test tour. I know he’s just been over in Zimbabwe recently and played that (T20I) series over there, but a left-armer would be ideal for them to have in their touring squad,” he said.

“(Mohammed) Shami will be back fit by then, (Mohammed) Siraj we know will be there about somewhere and obviously Bumrah is going nowhere. So both teams are going to line up really, really strongly,” he predicted.

India-Australia rivalry next to Ashes

Heaping praises on the current Indian team’s ability to pose challenges not only in the sub-continent but also during overseas tours, Ponting said that the rivalry between India and Australia has gradually reached a level that sits next to the Ashes.

“I think I was a part of it when that really started to grow, when the rivalry really started to grow, was it’s right at the back end of my career. And that’s when I think India seemingly really started to stand up to the fight and say, OK you’re playing against India now, this is a different Indian team, we’ve got different leaders and different players and we’re going to do it whatever we can to beat you guys – whether it’s in India or in Australia,” he said.

“I’ve said for the last couple of years now, Australia have always had a fierce rivalry with England, obviously, and a very strong rivalry with South Africa. But I think India is now sitting right on the back of what an Ashes clash is like and probably overtaken the rivalry with South Africa. So I mean, that’s probably enough said. The fact that someone like me is looking at it in that way. I’m sure the players look at it in the same way as well and I’m really excited for the summer.

“There’ll be a lot of Indian broadcasters out there. There’ll be a lot of Indian fans out here. India will bring a really strong team here. And we know Australia are World Test Champions at the moment so it should be a mouth-watering summer again,” the former World Cup-winning skipper predicted.